INSIGHTS

Markets reprice fast. Geopolitical shifts don't announce themselves. And most analysis reaches you after the moment that mattered. BlackPoint Insights are short, direct pieces of analysis published when there is something worth saying - a structural shift being misread by the consensus, a geopolitical dynamic that hasn't yet shown up in asset prices, a policy decision whose second-order effects are being underestimated. We publish when we have a view.

Each piece is written to inform a decision - not to document what has already been priced in.

Will Pill Stand Alone? The 18 June MPC Decision

The Bank of England will almost certainly hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June 2026. The story is the committee's hawkish turn: a unanimous March hold gave way to an 8–1 April vote with Huw Pill dissenting for a hike. With Brent slumping to ~$86 on a draft deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, BlackPoint puts a hold at ~97% and expects Pill alone again — while flagging that the energy reversal may mean the hawkish moment has already peaked.

Jun 16

Lagarde Moved First — The 11 June ECB Decision

The ECB raised all three key rates by 25bp on 11 June 2026, taking the deposit rate to 2.25% — its first hike since 2023 and the first move by a major central bank to tighten in response to the Middle East energy shock. Staff lifted the inflation path (3.0% headline for 2026) and cut growth to 0.8%, explicitly choosing the inflation side of a stagflation trade-off. BlackPoint expects a second 25bp hike on 23 July, taking the deposit rate to a 2.50% terminal.

Jun 12

Same Shock, Different Buffers — UK and Euro Area Inflation, April 2026

UK headline CPI fell to 2.8% in April 2026, below consensus and driven lower by the Ofgem price cap change. The euro area confirmed 3.0%, with energy surging to 10.8% — its highest since February 2023. The divergence in headline is a regulatory artefact; both economies are absorbing the same Iran-driven energy shock, with UK producer input prices at 7.7% confirming the pipeline pressure building behind the consumer print.

May 20

The UK's Double Shock: An Outsized Hit from the Iran War

The OECD's March 2026 interim update delivers a stark verdict: no major economy faces a sharper growth downgrade or bigger inflation revision than the UK. Gas-linked electricity pricing, pre-existing fiscal drag, and a Bank of England caught in a stagflation trap make Britain the conflict's most exposed G7 economy. This analysis covers the OECD's revised UK growth and inflation forecasts, the transmission mechanism from the Iran conflict to UK energy prices, the contrast with

Mar 26

Bailey Held His Ground. The 19 March MPC Decision - Post-Decision Update

A unanimous hold, but the question has shifted entirely. The easing bias has been removed. The question for April is no longer whether to cut - it is whether to hike. This analysis covers the March 2026 MPC decision, voting breakdown, the case for holding, principal risks from the Iran conflict, and BlackPoint's base case for the April decision.

Mar 19

ENGAGE BLACKPOINT

Most engagements begin with a conversation

If the analysis on this page is relevant to decisions your business is facing, BlackPoint works with financial institutions, corporates, and policy-focused organisations on a retained or project basis. Retained clients receive analysis like this - tailored to their sector, exposure, and standing questions - alongside direct access when events move.

CONTACT

granthixon@blkpoint.co.uk