The MPC's Tightening Grip on an Easing Problem
Mar 3
1 min read
Updated: Apr 2
Unemployment reached 5.2% in Q4 2025 - the highest since 2021. Pay settlements are at 3.6%, close to the MPC's informal target. The committee is holding, but the data is starting to move against it.
This analysis covers the February and March labour market prints, the case for and against a May rate cut, the wage-price loop outlook, and BlackPoint's probability assessment for the April MPC decision.