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The Bank of England will almost certainly hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June 2026. The story is the committee's hawkish turn: a unanimous March hold gave way to an 8–1 April vote with Huw Pill dissenting for a hike. With Brent slumping to ~$86 on a draft deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, BlackPoint puts a hold at ~97% and expects Pill alone again — while flagging that the energy reversal may mean the hawkish moment has already peaked.

The ECB raised all three key rates by 25bp on 11 June 2026, taking the deposit rate to 2.25% — its first hike since 2023 and the first move by a major central bank to tighten in response to the Middle East energy shock. Staff lifted the inflation path (3.0% headline for 2026) and cut growth to 0.8%, explicitly choosing the inflation side of a stagflation trade-off. BlackPoint expects a second 25bp hike on 23 July, taking the deposit rate to a 2.50% terminal.

UK headline CPI fell to 2.8% in April 2026, below consensus and driven lower by the Ofgem price cap change. The euro area confirmed 3.0%, with energy surging to 10.8% — its highest since February 2023. The divergence in headline is a regulatory artefact; both economies are absorbing the same Iran-driven energy shock, with UK producer input prices at 7.7% confirming the pipeline pressure building behind the consumer print.

The OECD's March 2026 interim update delivers a stark verdict: no major economy faces a sharper growth downgrade or bigger inflation revision than the UK. Gas-linked electricity pricing, pre-existing fiscal drag, and a Bank of England caught in a stagflation trap make Britain the conflict's most exposed G7 economy. This analysis covers the OECD's revised UK growth and inflation forecasts, the transmission mechanism from the Iran conflict to UK energy prices, the contrast with

A unanimous hold, but the question has shifted entirely. The easing bias has been removed. The question for April is no longer whether to cut - it is whether to hike. This analysis covers the March 2026 MPC decision, voting breakdown, the case for holding, principal risks from the Iran conflict, and BlackPoint's base case for the April decision.

The committee is not divided on where rates are going. It is divided on timing. Four members have already told him which way to vote. The question is whether the incoming data gives Bailey cover to move. This analysis covers the case for a May cut, the energy base effect on headline CPI, the wage-price trajectory, BlackPoint's probability assessment for the April decision, and the signposts to watch before the next meeting.

Unemployment reached 5.2% in Q4 2025 - the highest since 2021. Pay settlements are at 3.6%, close to the MPC's informal target. The committee is holding, but the data is starting to move against it. This analysis covers the February and March labour market prints, the case for and against a May rate cut, the wage-price loop outlook, and BlackPoint's probability assessment for the April MPC decision.

The UK's central delivery risk in 2026 is not fiscal arithmetic - it is institutional congestion. Planning reform, energy infrastructure acceleration, and judicial review constraints are colliding with a state apparatus designed for procedural veto rather than delivery. This analysis covers the structural bottlenecks facing the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, the capacity constraints within the planning and regulatory system, the grid connection queue problem, and BlackPoin