Will Bailey Cross the Floor? The April 2026 MPC Decision
Mar 16
1 min read
The committee is not divided on where rates are going. It is divided on timing. Four members have already told him which way to vote. The question is whether the incoming data gives Bailey cover to move.
This analysis covers the case for a May cut, the energy base effect on headline CPI, the wage-price trajectory, BlackPoint's probability assessment for the April decision, and the signposts to watch before the next meeting.